Props to Oren. Time to eat crow!!!!

[jcambert]

Ok, guys, I saw that another thread was already started about this, but, I was wrong, and, I apologize.

Oren, you are the man, and, your insights are very valuable to this group.

I won't even respond to any of the replies that will inevitably made to this, poking fun at me, as they will, undoubtedly, be well deserved.

I DO, however, do this for a living. Just wanted to address that in reference to another post on the other thread that had been started. And, despite my loss on this wager, and my loss on the LB2 wager, I did win on the Sinbad one.

Either way, I was WRONG, WRONG, WRONG.

JP

 

[Oren1]

Thanks, dude. That took some guts to post that. Props.

hahah just kidding, now, let's see if we can agree on something for once and make some $$$

 

[jcambert]

Yup. What are your thoughts on Pirates?

JP

 

[Oren1]

Well, it's going to be the biggest movie of the summer of the remaining contenders, I believe, guaging from the internet buzz. It's got a crappy buzz rating so far, though, I'm waiting for them to update it and I'm sure it will end up with more than 25 points over the next few days. Box Office Reports also updated their "most anticipated" list, and it's right behind T3. But, with that low buzz score you're 35 million predicion sounds about right, so far, IMO. I'm leaning toward a bit higher, but definitely below T3, I'm thinking. It does have a lot going for it, as it reminds me a bit of the Mummy series, which was really popular. A light-hearted adventure film with action/stars/comedy, etc., a lot of factors that gaurantee a modest success at the very least. A lot of people I know weren't too thrilled about it after seeing the preview for the first time, so I don't think it will be an enormous hit. It's not a must-see movie. It will be interesting to see what the over/under is set at.

 

[Oren1]

Now I'm seeing the estimated 3,000 theater count, that's not a whole lot of theaters, there's a lot of competition still out there this week.

 

[jcambert]

Well, here is my thinking with the prediction.

1) Using an average of $10k to $13k puts this movie at $30mil to $39mil.

2) It opens on Wednesday, which will undoubtedly hurt it's 3 day take, thereby leaning towards the lower end of the above stated range.

3) The box office right now is doing poorly.

I would say $30 to $35 is my initial gut feeling on this. I just don't see it doing that much more than that. CA2 was probably more highly anticipated, and opened in more theaters, and had the advantage of NOT opening up on a Wednesday. Plus, this film will have to contend with T3 in only it's second weekend, and, considering the good word of mouth, I think T3 will show pretty good legs.

JP

 

[Oren1]

I'd agree with you on all those points except the Charlie's Angels bit. I could be wrong, it seems like Yahoo is taking longer the past couple of weeks in updating their buzz index. I just saw CA2 as somewhat of a flop, and this one being more anticipated than that movie, by a small margin. I'm basing this opinion off of seeing other "most anticipated" surveys, and CA2 never seemed to get a very good response, while Pirates seems to be on a lot of people's list. Still, with the Wednesday opener I think it will do less than CA2's 38 million 3 day over it's 3 day.

 

[Oren1]

Hopefully they **** up their lines and we won't have to pinpoint this one to the nearest 1 million.

I don't know if you could convince me to take under 35 million... This might be a tough one. Signs point to the under, sure.... but, aw **** it it's too early to tell.